Monday, June 13, 2011

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  • alkg
    08-13 08:41 PM
    see the paragraph in bold letters.................

    Greenspan Sees Bottom
    In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
    August 14, 2008
    WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
    In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
    "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
    A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
    An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
    "Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
    At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
    Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
    His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
    "It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
    The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
    His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
    Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
    But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
    Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
    In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
    Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
    Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.

    He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.

    He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news




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  • smuggymba
    03-07 09:40 AM
    I have an approved I-140 from my current US company but there are some discussions of "layoffs" going around and I want to be ready for any scenario.

    My question is whether I can retain my PD with an approved I-140:

    1.) If the employer hasn't taken any decision to cancel I-140.

    2.) If the employer writes to USCIS about cancelling I-140.

    Thanks.




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  • gcwanted101
    09-02 10:43 AM
    Did any one(who have not applied 485 yet) got their 140 Approved copy by FOIA request? :confused:




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  • santb1975
    12-25 04:21 PM
    on your substitute W2.

    So i should report the pay for sep to dec in substitute W2 though i have not received it from my employer right and also report to DOL for the same.



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  • saimrathi
    07-03 09:21 AM
    Sorry if you find it offensive, but I dont think its going to prove anything to the USCIS and I am not even sure they will notice it.
    Why is no one talking about a public demonstartion in New York or something along those lines that is bound to get TV reporters attention and having a spokesperson who can speak on our behalf in front of a national audience and talk about the discrimintaion that US shows against legal workers
    If Illegal Immigrants have the courage to pursue their agenda on the streets what is stopping us from doing it.
    What are we afraid of? its not the lack of issues, its the lack of resolve
    Lets see if thread swells to dewcent levels we can organize a protest against USCIS infront of NBC studios

    I hope you get a day off from work for doing that..




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  • mbartosik
    02-20 11:01 AM
    MRSR:
    there have been rumors of EB2 India moving out of U.
    Any notes with VB may be more important than the actual movement. So whether it is worth depends on the PDs.

    I interfiled (ROW) in December, I'm not sure if they applied it.
    When I spoke with an IO they seemed clueless about interfiling, thinking that new I485 had to be filed -- plain wrong. So be prepared to check up on them a month after filing. They should be able to tell you if the I140 is assigned to a I485. For me it is academic now because as of March I'll be within PD for EB3 or EB2.



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  • stemcell
    02-11 11:55 AM
    MOE

    Please 'no more posts' and 'GOODBY' :D




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  • leslie535
    02-28 11:00 AM
    hey unitednations:
    She had the B visa all along so there is no issue of her telling the truth or not on the visa app.
    I have looked into the V visa before as well, and as we know, it is not applicable since I filed the I-130 July, 2006.
    The present situation is that we just booked a ticket for her and the baby to head home on March 17th (the I-94 expires March 24th.) The hope is to receive good news on the grad school application and commence the work on the F-1. Thanks for your inputs so far guys..
    Leslie



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  • at0474
    01-09 02:52 PM
    It would definately move..but movement would be backward. :-)

    --LOL! I understand where you are coming from!! However, in reality, EB3's rear got so far up against the brick wall, it can't move back any further. It can only move forward.

    Are there people with EB3 pds in 2000/2001 still waiting in that large number for GCs? I don't think so..

    If not any movement, I won't be surprised. If any, it has to go forward for EB3.




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  • gemini23
    07-27 03:21 PM
    thanks for all the answers.



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  • calboy78
    11-10 01:55 PM
    Hi friends,
    My brother in NJ got his new passport at NY Indian consulate (since old one was expiring soon). They gave new passport which was valid for only one year - saying that they need valid unexpired visa-stamp to give 10 year validity passport.
    They said that they will NOT accept
    - valid unexpired EAD
    - valid unexpired AP
    - valid 485 receipt
    - even valid unexpired H1 approval notice (my brother still has H1 in addition to AP)
    ...Now it is so absurd that, even if my bro went for visa stamping (which he isn't planning), he will not probably be issued 3 yr visa as passport is valid for very short duration. A chicken and egg problem.
    In addition why do Indian consulate worry about our visa status for determining passport validity duration ? If they do care then at least they must accept the legal documents (ead/ap/485 receipt/h1 approval notice) to make a decision.

    I will appreciate if anyone has a solution to this problem. All answers appreciated.

    I am so sad (and mad) that lawmakers of our country are still haunting us while we are away from our country and trying to contribute to its progress.




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  • ganguteli
    03-06 02:53 PM
    I'll urge people from especially from California and Texas send out the letters and call up their lawmakers...Despite the Anti-immigrant climate prevailing in the country, congresswoman Zoe Logfren was able to get her bill passed on wednesday....If we can proove to them that we are not asking new green card numbers and not ask for recapturing green card numbers, they'll certainly hear us, but we need to speak up...

    So your strategy is to go against her own bill to recapture greencards that she introduced for us last year.

    I think this is wrong.

    Recapture is a good option if you want to do it right. Otherwise all ROW will oppose you. How are you different than the guys who open threads against Telgus or EB3 vs EB2 or against Muslims.

    What you are doing is only dividng the community. My collegues who are also IV members are mad reading that someone in IV is pursuing a one point agenda against ROW. We need to stop such threads. A lot of ROW are quiet members on IV forum and they will be upset.
    Country caps can only be supported if there is recapture or increase in visa numbers.



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  • fromnaija
    03-18 04:20 PM
    would that invalidate the SSN?

    No. Once allocated, SSN cannot become invalid; it is yours for life. So, not renewing EAD will not invalidate SSN.




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  • smahwal
    08-05 12:49 PM
    My husband and I are July 2 Neb transfer to TX and we got approval email on 8/1. PD is 2005 Dec.



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  • skdskd
    08-31 11:21 AM
    http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/lou.dobbs.tonight/




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  • LayoffBlog
    01-27 01:32 PM
    High-tech glass and ceramics maker Corning Inc. - which makes glass for LCD screens and monitors in addition to fiber-optic technology - announced Tuesday it will cut 3,500 jobs, or 13% of the company’s workforce, by the end of 2009.Source: CNNMoneyPosted in Manufacturing, US   Tagged: Corning, Corning layoff, Corning layoffs    http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=layoffblog.com&blog=5255291&post=1261&subd=layoffblog&ref=&feed=1

    More... (http://layoffblog.com/2009/01/27/corning-slashes-3500-jobs/)



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  • gc_bucs
    03-18 10:18 AM
    You & your wife should talk to a good attorney about the possibility of using "interfiling" in case of a divorce. I was in the same situation as you couple of years ago & Shiela Murthy's office recommended "interfiling". If you need more information send me a PM
    Need your opinion on this.. filed for I-485 on EB2 in July 07. I am the primary applicant. I have been married since May '04. Need to apply for a divorce. My wife, a derivative in my application, is holding up the process as it may affect her chances of getting a GC without any sweat. She has an parallel GC process running solely in her name, which I believe hasnt cleared PERM yet (some sort of audit). She is on H1B, extendable for another 3 years, and has EAD from my GC application. Will there be any implications on her application if the divorce goes through? And also, can I out of spite do anything to get her derivative application out of the queue :rolleyes: ?




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  • small2006
    07-11 11:35 AM
    Hi Folks,
    I am one of those guys who has EAD/AP and as per the latest (Aug 08) bulletin, my PD is current.

    I just called USCIS and got my 3rd service request number since Oct 2007. So far nothing has happened.

    I want to know if this is going to have a negative impact on my 485 approval in anyway? Am I not supposed to have my FP done before they can approve my 485? Isn't that a pre-requisite? I just don't want to miss one more boat due to USCIS screw ups.

    Please advise/suggest...

    Thanks.

    Moderator: apologies for cross-posting but I needed an answer soon.




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  • RandyK
    01-03 04:12 PM
    I am waiting to sign up for the monthly.

    I don't think it is a good idea to restrict members by the amount they contribute. As we already know we only have around 200 members that actually contribute financially out of the 7K membership.

    We are a grassroots organization we need all the foot solders we can get (remember how effective it was in December, when we mobilized together). Restricting users would turn members away and when we loose them, we loose them for good. There will not be any references from those who leave.

    Remember Howard Dean's fund raising campaign mostly they collected $10 and $20 not just big amounts for his presidential campaign. We must take what we can and encourage members to participate. When members see what we do they will volunteer.

    A first time visitor to our website is not going to trust us to give money with out knowing what we are all about. When we restrict them they will never know what we are doing.

    Just think about it. Would you do it?




    mheggade
    07-30 11:24 AM
    Don't put "difficult" and "spouse" next to each other. WHY? Its because two different words means the same????

    Very funny.




    avi
    01-10 09:00 PM
    Me (and two of my colleagues are) in the same boat!
    July first week filer -
    Receitps /EAD/AP received for both me and my wife
    No FP for either of us .. same is the case with the others



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